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The second round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs tips off Sunday evening with a high-stakes Eastern Conference semifinal showdown as the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers host the surging Indiana Pacers in Game 1 at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse.
Cleveland enters the series well-rested and riding a wave of confidence after a dominant first-round sweep of the Miami Heat. The Pacers, meanwhile, needed five games—including an overtime thriller—to dispatch the Milwaukee Bucks, but arrive in Cleveland battle-tested and with an upset on their minds.
The Cavaliers, 64-18 in the regular season, are currently 8.5-point favorites, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, with an over/under of 229.5 total points. Despite the odds, Indiana’s recent postseason performance suggests this could be a closer series than the numbers indicate.
Contrasting Styles, Shared Momentum
Indiana (50-32) was electric in the opening round, averaging over 117 points per game in the regular season and outlasting a potent Bucks offense. They did so largely through offensive versatility and elite perimeter shooting, hitting 40.2% from beyond the arc during the series—a crucial factor that may again be decisive.
The Cavaliers, in contrast, stifled Miami with suffocating defense and hot shooting of their own, including a 44.4% clip from three-point range. While Cleveland’s offense impressed, it was the team’s balance—seven players averaging double digits in the playoffs—that powered the sweep.
Key Matchups to Watch
All-Star guard Donovan Mitchell continues to be the Cavs’ engine. He’s averaged 23.8 points, four assists, and 1.5 steals per game so far in the postseason, including back-to-back 30-point performances to open the Miami series. Center Jarrett Allen has been equally vital, averaging a double-double with 14.3 points and 10.3 rebounds while anchoring the defense.
For Indiana, the frontcourt duo of Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner has been instrumental. Siakam, who’s historically performed well against Cleveland, posted 20.2 points and 6.9 rebounds per game this season. Turner, meanwhile, nearly had a double-double (21 points, 9 rebounds) in Indiana’s Game 5 clincher and will be tasked with limiting Allen’s impact inside.
Veteran point guard Tyrese Haliburton, whose floor generalship has propelled Indiana’s high-paced offense all season, will be a key X-factor. If Haliburton can control tempo and generate open looks, the Pacers could stretch Cleveland’s perimeter defense—statistically one of the Cavs’ few weak spots this year.
Stats That Matter
Cleveland is -360 on the moneyline, with Indiana at +285, underscoring the Cavaliers’ favored status.
The Pacers have hit the moneyline in 44 of their last 62 games, indicating their ability to deliver as underdogs.
Despite their first-round sweep, the Cavaliers allowed Miami to shoot over 36% from three—an area Indiana can exploit if they maintain their long-range form.
Indiana gave up 39.3% from three to Milwaukee—one of the worst marks among playoff teams—but still won four of five games.
Playoff Experience vs. Playoff Firepower
Cleveland’s steady progress this season—culminating in their first Central Division title since 2018—has been fueled by consistency and depth. Yet, the Pacers’ fearless shooting and transition-heavy offense has given them the look of a bracket-buster.
Both teams met twice during the final week of the regular season, including a nail-biting overtime finish. That familiarity may set the tone for a physical and tightly contested series.
Prediction and Outlook
While the Cavaliers have home-court advantage and a statistical edge in most categories, Indiana’s high-octane offense and postseason momentum could make Game 1 far more competitive than the 8.5-point spread suggests. Cleveland’s size and defensive coordination will challenge the Pacers, but if Indiana heats up from beyond the arc early, a Game 1 upset is not out of reach.
SportsLine’s projection model, which has simulated the matchup 10,000 times, leans toward the under (229.5 points) and suggests one side of the spread hits in nearly 60% of simulations. With that in mind, Indiana covering the spread—and possibly stealing the opener—is a tempting prospect for bettors and fans alike.
